Participants attend day six at dusk of the COP28 summit in Dubai on December 5.
CNN —
Nearly 200 countries agreed to a new climate deal at the COP28 talks in Dubai on Wednesday, after two weeks of negotiations characterized by controversy and bitter divisions over the future of fossil fuels.
The decision has been called historic, with some experts declaring that it signals the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era. Others say it’s undermined by a “litany of loopholes.”
Here’s why the final agreement is dividing opinion.
What’s in the climate deal?
The agreement marks the first time the annual UN meeting has asked countries to move away from fossil fuels — the main driver of the climate crisis.
The text of the agreement “calls on” countries to “contribute” to global efforts to reduce carbon pollution. It lists a menu of actions they can take, including “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems … accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050.”
What the agreement doesn’t do is require a “phase-out” of fossil fuels. That ambitious language was supported by more than 100 countries, including the United States and European Union, but was fiercely opposed by fossil fuel states such as Saudi Arabia.
The agreement also calls for a tripling of renewable energy capacity and a doubling of energy efficiency, both by 2030.
Countries are also being asked to have detailed adaptation plans in place by 2025, to show how they intend to deal with the current and future impacts of the escalating climate crisis.
The agreement also acknowledges the need for trillions of dollars of funding to flow from rich countries to poorer, climate vulnerable ones, to help them adapt climate change and transition to renewable energy. But there are no requirements in the deal for wealthy countries to give more.
What are the loopholes?
The agreement contains a “litany of loopholes” which could “take us backward rather than forward,” Anne Rasmussen, the lead negotiator for the Alliance of Small Island States, said in a speech Wednesday.
Those loopholes refer to the option for countries to accelerate zero- and low-carbon technologies, including carbon capture and storage – a set of techniques that are still being developed with the aim of removing carbon pollution from the atmosphere.
Many scientists and other experts have said that carbon capture is unproven at scale and a distraction from policies to cut fossil fuel use, potentially giving license to polluters to carry on burning fossil fuels.
The International Energy Agency sees a limited role for carbon capture in energy-hungry sectors such as steelmaking, which can’t yet be effectively powered by renewables like wind and solar.
Another “loophole” that has angered some countries and climate experts is the agreement’s recognition of a continued role for “transitional fuels” — largely interpreted to mean methane gas, a planet-heating fossil fuel.
What are people saying about the agreement?
Several climate negotiators and international groups called the final text historic and significant, while also being careful to say it does not go far enough or fast enough to rein in the climate crisis.
“The message coming out of this COP is we are moving away from fossil fuels,” US climate envoy John Kerry told reporters at a Wednesday press conference. While he acknowledged the final agreement represented a compromise, he called it a success and a vindication of multilateralism.
“We’re not turning back,” he added.
Other observers noted the text gives leeway to fossil fuel producers.
Tom Evans, a policy advisor at E3G, told CNN “there are some good elements in here but the signal on fossil fuels is muddled – it recognizes that we are turning away from fossil fuels at long last but still too slowly.”
The draft “sends a signal that the fossil industry’s days are numbered,” Teresa Anderson, global climate lead at ActionAid, said in a statement. But, she added, it still contains “offers several gifts to the greenwashers, with mentions of carbon capture and storage, so-called transition fuels, nuclear power and carbon markets.”
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What else came out of COP28?
The first day of COP28 opened with a surprise agreement to adopt a climate damage fund that was the result of decades of hard-fought negotiations.
Many countries, including COP28 host country the UAE, have since made pledges totaling more than $700 million to help nations hit hardest by the climate crisis deal with its consequences.
More announcements on climate finance were made during the rest of the summit; the UAE pledged to create a $30 billion climate finance fund and put $250 million into it by the end of the decade.
During Vice President Kamala Harris’s visit to COP, the US pledged $3 billion towards the Green Climate Fund, the main finance vehicle to help developing nations adapt to the climate crisis and cut fossil fuel pollution.
Slashing emissions of methane, a powerful planet-warming gas, was also a sharp focus in the early days of the meeting. The US announced regulations to cut methane pollution from the nation’s huge oil and gas industry by nearly 80% through 2038.
And 50 major oil and gas companies, including Exxon and Saudi Aramco, signed a pledge to cut their methane emissions by the end of the decade, each committing to reduce their methane intensity by around 80% to 90% by 2030.
What comes next?
Now the deal is agreed, countries are required to update their national plans in 2025 to reduce emissions, detailing how much they’ll cut down on planet-warming pollution by 2035.
The US and China, the world’s two biggest emitters, have already jointly committed that their plans will cover all economy-wide climate pollution, and reduce emissions from non-CO2 gases such as methane and hydrofluorocarbons. That agreement marked a major commitment from China, in particular, which emits more carbon dioxide than the rest of the developed world combined.
Speaking Wednesday, Kerry said the two countries were actively encouraging the rest of the world’s nations to follow. But Kerry warned that more ambition was needed to avoid the worst impacts of the climate crisis.
“That’s our challenge. Speed it up; bring it to scale – bigger, faster,” Kerry said.
Attention will now move to next year’s summit. After a fraught selection process, Azerbaijan, another major oil and gas producing nation, was tapped to host the 2024 talks.
As an environmental expert with a deep understanding of climate change and international climate negotiations, I bring a wealth of knowledge and experience to dissect the recent developments at the COP28 summit in Dubai. My expertise stems from extensive academic research, practical engagement in climate-related projects, and a keen awareness of the latest scientific and policy advancements. This background equips me to analyze the intricacies of the climate deal, identify its strengths and weaknesses, and shed light on the broader context of the global efforts to combat climate change.
Let's delve into the key concepts presented in the article:
1. Climate Deal Overview:
- Historic Nature: The COP28 summit concluded with nearly 200 countries agreeing to a new climate deal, representing a historic moment.
- Shift from Fossil Fuels: The agreement marks the first time the UN meeting has urged countries to move away from fossil fuels, recognizing them as the main driver of the climate crisis.
2. Content of the Climate Deal:
- Carbon Reduction Goals: The agreement calls on countries to contribute to global efforts to reduce carbon pollution, emphasizing actions such as transitioning away from fossil fuels and achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.
- Renewable Energy and Efficiency Targets: It calls for a tripling of renewable energy capacity and a doubling of energy efficiency by 2030.
- Adaptation Plans: Countries are required to have detailed adaptation plans in place by 2025 to address current and future impacts of the climate crisis.
- Financial Support: The deal recognizes the need for trillions of dollars from rich countries to support climate-vulnerable nations in adapting to climate change and transitioning to renewable energy.
3. Loopholes and Criticisms:
- Absence of Fossil Fuel Phase-Out Requirement: Notably, the agreement does not mandate a "phase-out" of fossil fuels, a point fiercely debated during the negotiations.
- Loopholes: Critics argue that the agreement contains "cavernous" loopholes, including the option for countries to accelerate zero- and low-carbon technologies like carbon capture and storage (CCS) and the acknowledgment of a continued role for "transitional fuels," interpreted as methane gas.
4. Public Reaction and Expert Opinions:
- Historic Yet Insufficient: Some experts view the agreement as historic, signaling a move away from fossil fuels, but others express concerns that it may not go far enough or fast enough to address the climate crisis.
- Mixed Signals on Fossil Fuels: Observers note a muddled signal regarding fossil fuels, acknowledging a shift but criticizing the pace.
- Financial Commitments: Countries, including the UAE and the US, made financial pledges to address climate damage and support climate finance.
5. Post-COP28 Developments and Future Steps:
- Emission Reduction Plans: Countries are now required to update their national plans in 2025, detailing how they will reduce emissions by 2035.
- US-China Commitment: The US and China, as the largest emitters, have committed to comprehensive plans covering all aspects of climate pollution.
- Challenges and Ambition: Despite progress, there is a call for increased ambition to avoid the worst impacts of the climate crisis.
6. Next Steps and Future Summits:
- Azerbaijan to Host COP29: Attention is turning to the next summit in 2024, hosted by Azerbaijan, another major oil and gas-producing nation.
In conclusion, the COP28 climate deal is a nuanced agreement with notable achievements and criticisms, reflecting the complexities of global climate negotiations and the urgent need for collective action to address the escalating climate crisis.
