When the College Football Playoff returns in 2024, it’s going to look different. The 12-team event won’t just be hosted by bowls in warm locations or indoor venues, games are coming to campus.
For the first round games this season, seeds 5-8 will host their matchups, while the top four teams get byes. This year’s first-round games will be played on Friday, Dec. 20 and Saturday, Dec. 21.
The potential for weather to impact the first-round games brought up an interesting question. If the 12-team playoff had existed in the past, which games would have been affected?
Aimed with standings from the Bowl Championship Series and the four-team era of the CFP, AL.com figured out what the games would have been since the start of the modern era in 1998, and the dates those games would have been played on, using the 2024 schedule model. Using past weather data from the National Centers for Environmental Information, a rough look at what the weather would have looked like for those hypothetical games could be crafted.
Some parts were trickier than others. The NCEI didn’t have temperatures available for any games that might have taken place in Eugene, Oreg., so information from Weather Underground was used instead.
The 2020 pandemic also threw things off. Schedules that season were strange, so where, in a normal season, the first-round playoff games might have been played December 18-19, if they were placed two weeks after the delayed conference championships, they would have actually happened Jan. 1-2, 2021.
For the case of this exercise, the latter numbers were factored into the data, while both sets were included in the yearly weather reports. The original format of the 12-team playoff, which featured the six highest ranks conference champions, along with six at large bids, rather than the format that will take effect this year, which features the five highest-ranked champions, due to recent conference realignment.
AL.com tracked high and low temperatures, precipitation and snowfall for each of the Friday-Saturday periods where the hypothetical games would have been played, keeping the rhythm of the 2024 schedule as a guide. A year-by-year report can be found at the bottom of the story.
Here’s the answer to some burning questions about past weather.
How much would snow affect the games?
Of the 104 first-round games that would have taken place since the start of the BCS era, only 16 saw any snowfall during the Friday-Saturday period. Of those, just nine saw more than an inch of snowfall.
The snowiest first-round game would have come in 2016, when 7.4 inches fell in Madison on December 18 and 19 when Wisconsin would have hosted Southern California at Camp Randall. No other game even came close, with the second-snowiest Friday-Saturday coming that same year, when Michigan would have hosted Florida State
The snow could have made some warm-weather teams uncomfortable, including the Trojans and Seminoles. One more spot down the list, in 2007, Missouri’s best team ever would have faced Arizona State in Columbia.
If that game had been played on Saturday, Dec. 17 of that year, 2.5 inches of snow would have fallen on Faurot Field. That’s the third-highest snowfall in the observed years, meaning the top three all featured warm-weather visitors.
It’s worth noting the south is a popular recruiting ground even for northern schools, but snowfall would have been an interesting factor in a handful of the games. In 2009, a Paul Johnson Georgia Tech team would have faced a trip to Columbus, where it would face an Ohio State team built around a talented defense and running back Chris “Beanie” Wells..
In 2020, Notre Dame could have hosted Coastal Carolina, with the high temperature for the weekend coming in just above freezing at 33 degrees, and 2 inches of snow falling over the Friday and Saturday.
What about rain?
Looking back at the data, rain impacted more games than the snow. Of the 104 possible games, 50 of them would have seen some sort of precipitation during the Friday and Saturday.
Of those, eight saw more than an inch during the two-day period. Ole Miss might have hosted the rainiest first-round game in 2021, when the Rebels would have faced Oklahoma State.
The sky dropped 2.2 inches of precipitation on Oxford that Friday and Saturday, with the vast majority of it coming Friday. That’s a far bit above a possible 2013 game, when Oregon would have visited Ohio State and 1.69 inches fell on Columbus, 1.67 inches of it on the Friday.
Elsewhere in the state of Ohio, Cincinnati might have hosted the third-rainiest first round game seven years later. In 2020, Cincinnati would have played Georgia during a Friday and Saturday when 1.2 inches of rain fell.
Hot and cold
Sixty-five of the games would have been played during two-day periods where the low temperatures dropped below freezing. In 10 of those games, a freezing game would be guaranteed, as the high temperature never crossed that threshold.
The coldest high came during the same matchup that had the most snowfall. The 2016 Wisconsin-Southern Cal tilt would have been played during a two-day period that saw a high of just 18 degrees.
Madison also could have played host to the third-lowest high temperature for a first-round game in 1999, when it would have hosted Florida on either Dec. 17 or 18. The temps topped out at 25 degrees for those days.
The 2021 Michigan-Florida State game would have been the second coldest based on high temperatures. That game would have been played in Ann Arbor, where it stayed at or below 21 degrees on Dec. 16 and 17.
That game, along with the 1999 Wisconsin-Florida game were part of a three-way tie for coldest by low temperature, along with a 2000 matchup between Nebraska and Kansas State in Lincoln. All three Friday-Saturday periods dropped down to three degrees.
On the other side, six games could have featured high temperatures of 80 degrees or greater. Alabama would have played in one of those, a 2013 tilt with Central Florida where the Saturday weather would have hit exactly 80 degrees.
The warmest games that might have been played during the BCS and CFP eras would have come in 2000 and 2020, both in Florida, against Oregon and Iowa State respectively. Both of those saw highs of 83.
The Gators could have also hosted the third-hottest first round game, a 2001 matchup with Oklahoma where the temperature topped out at 82.
Highlights
Hottest possible game (high temp): 2000 Florida vs. Oregon and 2020 Florida vs. Iowa State (83 degrees)
Coldest possible game (low temp): 1999 Wisconsin vs. Florida, 2000 Nebraska vs. Kansas State, 2016 Michigan vs. Florida State (3 degrees)
Coldest high temp: 2016 Wisconsin vs. Southern Cal (18 degrees)
Most possible snowfall: 2016 Wisconsin vs. Southern Cal (7.1 inches)
Most possible precipitation: 2021 Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma State (2.22 inches)
Full report
1998
Dates: Dec. 18-19
Games: No. 5 Kansas State vs. No. 12 Virginia, No. 6 Texas A&M vs. No. 11 Nebraska, No. 7 Arizona vs. No. 10 Tulane, No. 8 Florida vs. No. 9 Wisconsin
Weather report: Nothing extreme temperature-wise, with highs ranging from 52 in Manhattan to 75 in Gainesville. College Station took 0.6 inches of rain.
1999
Dates: Dec. 17-18
Games: No. 5 Tennessee vs. No. 12 Marshall, No. 6 Kansas State vs. No. 11 Penn State, No. 7 Wisconsin vs. No. 10 Florida, No. 8 Michigan vs. No. 9 Michigan State
Weather report: Low temps got below freezing everywhere, dropping down to three degrees in Madison. Highs were below freezing there and in Ann Arbor, and the only rain came in Manhattan, just 0.01 inches.
2000
Dates: Dec. 15-16
Games: No. 5 Virginia Tech vs. No. 12 TCU, No. 6 Oregon State vs. No. 11 Notre Dame, No. 7 Florida vs. No. 10 Oregon, No. 8 Nebraska vs. No. 9 Kansas State
Weather report: High temps in the 80s in Gainesville and 20s in Lincoln, with rain on the forecast in every location. The Oregon State-Notre Dame matchup could have been the only one to get over a half-inch of precipitation, and Nebraska-Kansas State could have been the first snow game of the counted time period, with a half-inch of snow adding to nine inches the NCEI reported was already on the ground.
2001
Dates: Dec. 14-15
Games: No. 5 Nebraska vs. No. 12 LSU, No. 6 Florida vs. No. 11 Oklahoma, No. 7 Tennessee vs. No. 10 Maryland, No. 8 Texas vs. No. 9 Stanford.
Weather report: It got up to 82 degrees in Florida, and rained 1.12 inches in Austin on the Saturday. Besides that,things were largely uneventful.
2002
Dates: Dec. 20-21
Games: No. 5 Iowa vs. No. 12 Florida State, No. 6 Washington State vs. 11 Michigan, No. 7 Oklahoma vs. No. 10 Texas, No. 8 Kansas State vs. No. 9 Notre Dame
Weather report: Low temps all dropped below freezing, but highs jumped above. Pullman saw 0.09 inches of rain and one inch of snow, all of which came on Saturday.
2003
Dates: Dec. 19-20
Games: No. 5 Oklahoma vs. No. 12 Georgia, No. 6 Ohio State vs. No. 11 Miami (OH), No. 7 Texas vs. No. 10 Kansas State, No. 8 Tennessee vs. No. 9 Miami
Weather report: Cold in Columbus, with a high of 30 degrees and 1.2 inches of snowfall. No precipitation anywhere else, with highs in the 60s in Norman and Austin, and a chilly 36 in Knoxville.
2004
Dates: Dec. 17-18
Games: No. 5 Texas vs. No. 12 Iowa, No. 6 Cal vs. No. 11 LSU, No. 7 Georgia vs. No. 10 Louisville, No. 8 Virginia Tech vs. No. 9 Boise State
Weather report: No precipitation anywhere. Fairly mild high temps ranging from the high 40s to the high 60s, with the coldest lows dropping to 13 degrees in Blacksburg.
2005
Dates: Dec. 16-17
Games: No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 12 TCU, No. 6 Oregon vs. No. 11 West Virginia, No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 10 Virginia Tech, No. 8 Miami vs. No. 9 Auburn
Weather report: Half an inch of snow in Columbus, and 0.3 inches in South Bend. High temps in the 20s and 30s, besides Coral Gables, which climbed up to 81 degrees.
2006
Dates: Dec. 15-16
Games: No. 5 Michigan vs. No. 12 Arkansas, No. 6 LSU vs. No. 11 Notre Dame, No. 7 Wisconsin vs. No. 10 Oklahoma, No. 8 Boise State vs. No. 9 Auburn
Weather report: No precipitation. Warmest weather was in Baton Rouge, which topped out at 73 degrees, while the coldest came in Boise, which made it to 48 on Friday before climbing only to 37 degrees Saturday.
2007
Dates: Dec. 14-15
Games: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 12 Florida, No. 6 Missouri vs. No. 11 Arizona State, No. 7 Southern Cal vs. No. 10 Hawaii, No. 8 Kansas vs. No. 9 West Virginia
Weather report: Third snowiest Friday and Saturday for the years observed in Columbia, which saw 2.5 inches of snow, all on Saturday. All other games saw some precipitation, with 1.1 inches falling in Athens, which also saw the warmest high temperatures, climbing to 71 degrees Friday.
2008
Dates: Dec. 19-20
Games: No. 5 Texas vs. No. 12 Cincinnati, No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 11 TCU, No. 7 Texas Tech vs. No. 10 Ohio State, No. 8 Penn State vs. No. 9 Boise State
Weather report: State College saw 1.07 inches of rain and 2.2 inches of snow, most of which came on Saturday. Tuscaloosa and Austin both had picayune amounts of rain, and high temperatures in the 70s, while Lubbock topped out at 61 degrees.
2009
Dates: Dec. 18-19
Games: No. 5 Florida vs. No. 12 LSU, No. 6 Boise State vs. No. 11 Virginia Tech, No. 7 Oregon vs. No. 10 Iowa, No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 9 Georgia Tech.
Weather report: Snowy in Columbus, with 2.5 inches dropping throughout Friday and Saturday. A bit of rain everywhere else, with the most coming in Gainesville, which saw 0.29 inches.
2010
Dates: Dec. 17-18
Games: No. 5 Stanford vs. No. 12 Missouri, No. 6 Ohio State vs. No. 11 LSU, No. 7 Oklahoma vs. No. 10 Boise State, No. 8 Arkansas vs. No. 9 Michigan State
Weather report: The Stanford-Missouri game could have seen 0.78 inches of rain. Columbus was the coldest by far, topping out at 26 degrees, with 0.2 inches of snowfall, all of which fell on Friday.
2011
Dates: Dec. 16-17
Games: No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 12 TCU, No. 6 Stanford vs. No. 11 Clemson, No. 7 Arkansas vs. No. 10 South Carolina, No. 8 Boise State vs. No. 9 Kansas State
Weather report: Tuscaloosa saw 0.03 inches of rain. Uneventful year otherwise.
2012
Dates: Dec. 14-15
Games: No. 5 Notre Dame vs. No. 12 Boise State, No. 6 Florida vs. No. 11 Northern Illinois, No. 7 Oregon vs. No. 10 Texas A&M, No. 8 Georgia vs. No. 9 LSU
Weather report: South Bend was the only place to see any precipitation, 0.14 inches of rain. Beyond that, Oregon featured the coolest temperatures, topping out at 47 degrees.
2013
Dates: Dec. 20-21
Games: No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 12 Central Florida, No. 6 Baylor vs. No. 11 Oklahoma, No. 7 Ohio State vs. No. 10 Oregon, No. 8 Missouri vs. No. 9 South Carolina
Weather report: Tuscaloosa climbed up to 80 degrees, while Waco and Columbus each saw more than an inch of rain. Missouri also had some precipitation, with 0.2 inches reported on Saturday.
2014
Dates: Dec. 19-20
Games: No. 5 Baylor vs. No. 12 Boise State, No. 6 TCU vs. No. 11 Kansas State, No. 7 Mississippi State vs. No. 10 Arizona, No. 8 Michigan State vs. No. 9 Ole Miss
Weather report: Waco, Fort Worth and Starkville each saw less than a third of an inch of rain. It was chilly in East Lansing, topping out at 30 degrees.
2015
Dates: Dec. 18-19
Games: No. 5 Iowa vs. No. 12 Houston, No. 6 Stanford vs. No. 11 TCU, No. 7 Ohio State vs. No. 10 North Carolina, No. 8 Notre Dame vs. No. 9 Florida State
Weather report: South Bend got 0.3 inches of snow and topped out at 30 degrees. Iowa City and Columbus saw highs in the mid-30s, while Stanford got up to 62, with 0.17 inches of rain.
2016
Dates: Dec. 16-17
Games: No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 12 Western Michigan, No. 6 Michigan vs. No. 11 Florida State, No. 7 Oklahoma vs. No. 10 Colorado, No. 8 Wisconsin vs. No. 9 Southern Cal
Weather report: Madison saw the coldest and snowiest Friday-Saturday of the period observed, with 7.4 inches falling and a high temp of 18. Ann Arbor also got three inches of snow, while Columbus got 1.07.
2017
Dates: Dec. 15-16
Games: No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 12 Central Florida, No. 6 Wisconsin vs. No. 11 Washington, No. 7 Auburn vs. No. 10 Miami, No. 8 Southern Cal vs. No. 9 Penn State
Weather report: Uneventful year, with all high temps above 40 degrees and no precipitation to speak of. Warmest weather came in Los Angeles, where it got up to 81 on Friday.
2018
Dates: Dec. 14-15
Games: No. 5 Notre Dame vs. No. 12 Penn State, No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 11 LSU, No. 7 Michigan vs. No. 10 Florida, No. 8 Central Florida vs. No. 9 Washington
Weather report: Rain in all four locations, with Athens getting the most at 0.9 inches, followed by Orlando, which saw 0.76 inches. No high temperatures below 46 degrees.
2019
Dates: Dec. 20-21
Games: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 12 Memphis, No. 6 Oregon vs. No. 11 Utah, No. 7 Baylor vs. No. 10 Penn State, No. 8 Wisconsin vs. No. 9 Florida
Weather report: Eugene got 0.93 inches of rain, while Waco saw 0.04 inches. High temps ranged from 47 in Madison to 60 in Oregon.
2020
Dates with pandemic scheduling: Jan. 1-2 (2021)
Games: No. 5 Notre Dame vs. No. 12 Coastal Carolina, No. 6 Texas A&M vs. No. 11 Indiana, No. 7 Florida vs. No. 10 Iowa State, No. 8 Cincinnati vs. No. 9 Georgia
Weather report: Wide ranging year, with highs in the 30s in South Bend and 80s in Gainesville. South Bend got two inches of snow and nearly an inch of rain, while Cincinnati saw 1.2 inches of rain.
Dates without pandemic: Dec. 18-19
Weather report: No highs below 39 degrees. College Station saw 1.28 inches of rain, while Cincinnati had 0.11 inches.
2021
Dates: Dec. 17-18
Games: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 12 Pitt, No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 11 Utah, No. 7 Ohio State vs. No. 10 Michigan State, No. 8 Ole Miss vs. No. 9 Oklahoma State
Weather report: Rainiest Friday and Saturday period observed came in Oxford, where 2.22 inches of rain fell. Everywhere else saw between 0.54 and 0.75 inches.
2022
Dates: Dec. 16-17
Games: No. 5 TCU vs. No. 12 Tulane, No. 6 Ohio State vs. No. 11 Penn State, No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 10 Southern Cal, No. 8 Tennessee vs. No. 9 Kansas State
Weather report: Ohio State saw the lowest high temperature, at 41 degrees, plus 0.3 inches of snow. Uneventful elsewhere, with highs in the 40s and 50s.
2023
Dates: Dec. 15-16
Games: No. 5 Florida State vs. No. 12 Liberty, No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 11 Ole Miss, No. 7 Ohio State vs. No. 10 Penn State, No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 9 Missouri.
Weather report: Tallahassee (0.78 inches), Athens (1.02) and Columbus (0.44) all saw rain. Tallahassee was the warmest, topping out at 72 degrees, while Eugene was coldest at 44.
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